UFC Fight Night 206 Holm vs Vieira Main Card Odds and Picks

UFC Fight Night 206 Holm vs Vieira Main Card Odds and Picks

UFC Holm Vs Vieira Main Card

This detailed look at the five fight main card for UFC Fight Night 206 features our top bets for each bout, and a look at prop betting and your top opportunity for parlay and upset picks. UFC Fight Night 206 odds are brought to you by Bovada, but the UFC Fight Night 206 predictions can be placed with any of the top UFC betting sites. 

How to Bet on UFC Fight Night 206 Picks

Place your bets on UFC Fight Night 206 main card by 8:15 PM ET to get in on the action for all five fights. UFC Fight Night 206 takes place at UFC Apex Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Click any of the “place bet now” buttons to be taken to Bovada with our current The Sports Geek promotions. 

Top UFC Fight Night 206 Picks 

Here are the top UFC FIght Night 206 Predictions: 

Main Event Pick- Holly Holm Money Line at -250
Co Main Event Pick- Michel Pereira Money Line at -140
Top Parlay Pick- Park vs Anders Prop bet, Fight to Finish 1 Full Round at -650
Top Underdog Pick – Polyana Viana Money line at +105
Value Bet- Njokuani vs Todorovic Prop bet, Fight Goes the Distance, No at -225

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW! 

UFC Fight Night 208 Odds: Holm vs Vieira

We’ve covered this bout in greater detail without Holm vs Vieira Main Event pick, but we’ll go over some key indicators here. Holm is the better kickboxer, the more experienced fighter, and has every advantage over Vieira except for in submission grappling. Despite the differences in their BJJ, the stats aren’t far off when it comes to control time and takedowns. 

Tale of the Tape for Holm vs Vieira 

Fighter
Holly Holm ‘The Preachers Daughter’ 
Ketlen ‘Fenomeno’ Vieira 

Age
41
30

Height
5’8’’
5’8’’

Reach/Stance
69’’ Southpaw
68’’ Orthodox 

Record
14-5
12-2

Submissions/TKO in UFC
0/2
1/0

Fighter Training Camp
Jackson-Wink MMA Academy 
Nova Uniao Manaus. 

Age is the only concern for Holly Holm fans, and the eleven year age gap is a serious advantage for Ketlen. However, I’m noticing that women’s MMA seems to have different maturing times for fighters in their prime. Holly looked as good as ever in her last bout, and shows few signs of slowing overall. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Betting Odds for Holm vs Vieira

Bet
Odds

Holm Money Line
-250

Ketlen Vieira Money LIne
+200

Holm by TKO
+375

Under 4.5 Rounds 
+200

The under is a compelling bet at +200. Ketlen will be hunting the submission as has the confidence of being a better submission artist than Tate. Holm will take a similar route, assured she’s every bit as strong as Aldana who knocked Vieira out last year. I think a Holm TKO is far more likely than a Ketlen submission win, but fans of Vieira should take a chance on the under 4.5 Rounds prop bet. The UFC Fight Night 206 odds don’t offer much with the Vieira money line. I don’t see a clear path to a decision win for Ketlen, so take the Under if you’re banking on the Brazilian. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Pick for Holm vs Vieira

We’re sticking with our pick from earlier in the week, Holly Holm’s money line at -250. Bettors who waited have lost 50 points as Holly has become the greater favorite. We think she’ll do as she often does, moving up to her highest favorite status the day of the fight. Bet early for Holm at $40 per $100 wagered.
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

UFC Fight Night 208 Odds for the Main Card: Ponzinibbio vs Pereira

Pereira is on a four fight winning streak, ranging from +111 over Khaos Williams to -275 over Andre Fialho. His two UFC losses include a -460 upset loss to Tristan Connelly and a -175 DQ loss to Diego Sanchez. 

Ponzinibbio’s Hopeful Comeback

Santiago is 1-2 over his last three after knocking out Neil Magny and Gunnar Nelson. He lost to Jingliang as a -300 and Geoff Neal as a -120. Ponzinibbio has been upset twice in the last three fights, but his first two UFC losses were as the underdog to Larkin and Laflare at +155 and +105. 

Tale of the Tape for Ponzinibbio vs Pereira

Fighter
Santiago ‘Argentine Dagger’ Ponzinibbio
Michel ‘Demolidor’ Pereira

Age
35
29

Height
6’0’’
6’1’’

Reach/Stance
73’’ Orthodox 
73’’ Orthodox 

Record
29-5
27-11, 2 NC

Submissions/TKO in UFC
0/5
1/1

Fighter Training Camp
American Top Team
Overcome Academy, SFS

Pereira is the slightly larger, younger fighter. He’s got more losses and bouts overall, but Ponzinibbio has more UFC level losses, while Michel has nine outside of the organization, mostly for Shooto and some Eastern European organizations. 

Fighter’s Team and your UFC Fight Night 206 Pick

Pereira trains at Overcome Academy in Las Vegas, a Renzo Gracie affiliate school. It appears to have attracted a few top level fighters, however his main sparring and training partner there is Johnny Walker. His other school, Scorpion Fighting Systems, has produced a few notable talents recently, but the team has performed poorly in 2021 and 2022 with nearly all of the top fighters losing their last bout. 
Ponzinibbio trains at ATT, one of the top MMA schools in the world. His advantage is significant, and should tilt your betting pick in his favor. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Odds for Ponzinibbio vs Pereira 

Bet
Odds

Ponzinibbio Money Line
+115

Michel Pereira
-140

Ponzinibbio by Points
+215

Pereira by Points 
+185

Over 1.5 Rounds 
-310

Under 2.5 Rounds
+150

Michel is the current favorite. He opened at +130 and has slowly shifted to his current position. He’s a fan favorite, so it’s no surprise bettors want to see him spinning kick his way to victory. Still, Santiago has defeated the better pool of fighters, including #10 Neil Magny. Pereira is not currently inside the top fifteen, and neither are any of the five fighters he has defeated in the UFC. 

Prop Betting for Pereira vs Ponzinibbio

The Over 1.5 rounds is a good bet for a few reasons. Namely, Pereira has never been finished and has only one first round UFC win. Ponzinibiio has five UFC decision wins and two UFC decision losses. Ponzinibbio has strong knockout power, and it makes many bettors tentative to bet the over. We’ll be staying away from the Over 1.5 rounds UFC Fight Night 206 odds as a result. The props don’t beat out the money line on this one. 

MMA Analysis for Pereira vs Ponzinibbio

Periera shows better overall UFC stats, but his quality of opponent has been so much lower that it’s difficult to judge how he’ll fare against the worlds best. Ponzinibbio has knocked out over 30% of his UFC opponents.

Do you think Santiago Ponzinibbio can strike like this with Michel Pereira?pic.twitter.com/gDLb6jb0db

— MMA mania (@mmamania) May 17, 2022

Many of the Ponzinibbio knockouts are over fighters with less movement that Pereira, and the focus on distance management will throw off that power.

Key UFC Stats for Pereira vs Ponzinibbio

Fighter 
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Michel Pereira

Significant Strikes Landed/Absorbed 
4.7,4.5
4.7,3.2

Takedown Attempts Offense/Defensive
33%,60%
55%,100%

Control Time in Last Three Fights
00:25 
4:36 

Pereira is unafraid to utilize control time to peter out heavy hitting opponents. Its’ disappointing that Santiago was unwilling to focus on wrestling against the striker Li Jingliang and advantage his BJJ black belt. 
Santiago is a fantastic fighter, but he trusts in his right hand to the point that he’s unwilling to utilize gameplan to exploit obvious weaknesses, and that’s concerning. 

Michel Pereira’s Chin

The x-factor in this fight is Santiago’s power. If Michel can be put away early, should we be concerned with control time or Pereira’s takedown attempts?
Michel has been finished only once, by now UFC fighter Dusko Todorovic. The two fought in 2018, but it was ground strikes that finished Michel, not a stand up exchange. 

Betting Prediction for UFC Fight Night 206 Main Card

We see Michel Pereira’s money line as the top pick. Pereira pays out at -140, a payout of $71 per $100 wagered. The fans are right on this win, and the dynamic attacks of Michel will pay off against the increasingly one dimensional Ponzinibbio. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

UFC Fight Night 208 Odds: Njokuani vs Todorovic 

Njokuani is 2-0 in the UFC despite his seven losses in Bellator and RFA. Chidi upset Barriault and Sousa at +110 odds. His last losses were to Carvalho and Salter, two of Bellator’s top ten, at +110 and +210. 

Todorovic’s 3-2 UFC Record

Todorovic lost to Rodrigues and Soriano at -137 and -163. He defeated his first two UFC opponents at -399 and -240. His recent win over Pitolo was as a -163 favorite, a first round knockout with only 30 strikes. 

Tale of the Tape for Njokuani vs Todorovic 

Fighter
Chidi ‘Bang Bang’ Njokuani 
Dusko ‘Thunder’ Todorovic 

Age
33
28

Height
6’3’’
6’1’’

Reach/Stance
80’’ Orthodox 
74’’ Orthodox 

Record
21-7, 1NC
11-2

Submissions/TKO in UFC
0/2
0/2

Fighter Training Camp
Saekson Janjira Muay Thai 
Secutor MMA 

Njokuani is a big middleweight, with six inches of reach on Dusko. In his past two fights he’s looked unstoppable, having the reach and height advantage on both occasions. Chidi got an early start on his MMA career, leading to losses in Bellator, but he seems to just now be hitting his prime at 33. 

UFC Fight Night Odds for Njokuani vs Todorovic 

Bet
Odds

Njokuani Money Line
-230

Dusko Todorovic Money Line
+185

Fight Goes the Distance, No
-225

Njokuani by TKO 
EVEN

The Todorovic money line reflects his recent losses. He’s a tough fighter but has dropped wins that we all thought he would pick up. Both fighters’ finishing rate leads me to believe the props may be the right place to bet, with five of the seven combined bouts ending by finish. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Props for Njokuani vs Todorovic

The ‘Fight Goes to Decision, No’ prop bet covers 71% of the bouts between these two fighters at the UFC level, and 80% if you remove DWCS appearances. I feel it’s better than either fighter’s money line prop, and the UFC is setting up cards with a high rate of finishes on purpose. 

MMA Breakdown for Njokuani vs Todorovic

Todorovic should be concerned with his average strikes absorbed. He’s not a UFC level wrestler, and the lankier Chidi will have his pick of how to manage Todorovic and his power. 

Key UFC Stats for Chidi vs Dusko

Fighter 
Chidi Njokuani 
Dusko Todorovic 

Strikes Absorbed per Minute
1.53
4.96

Takedown Accuracy
0%
9%

Chidi doesn’t tend to grapple in his fights, focusing more on defending takedowns and dealing damage from over sprawl. Dusko has encountered some decent UFC strikers, but the loss to Gregory Rodrigues shows us that Chidi will likely win striking exchanges. 

Fight Footage for Chidi and Dusko 

Chidi has a real advantage in starting speed. Expect Njokuani to start early and look to push the pace. Dusko doesn’t mind starting quickly, but with Chidi’s range advantage, I see Dusko struggling in the opening minutes while he tries to find his range. 

🇳🇬Nigerian UFC fighter, Chidi Njokuani knocked out his opponent in just 16 seconds.

This is the second fastest UFC middleweight debut finish.

pic.twitter.com/RB1u6wfSdc

— ♡🍃 @OneJoblessBoy 🐳 (@OneJoblessBoy) March 2, 2022

If Dusko can manage the takedown he has a real chance at finishing. Against Salter, Chidi looked out of place in bottom position on the ground. Expect Dusko to attempt to improve his 9% UFC takedown success ratio, putting Chidi down early for ground striking damage. 

Here’s how Dusko Todorovic stopped Dequan Townsend on the #UFCFightIsland4 main card:pic.twitter.com/2xDeHaFwmj

— Bloody Elbow (@BloodyElbow) October 4, 2020

UFC Fight Night 206 Prediction for Njokuani vs Todorovic 

Our betting pick is the prop bet ‘Fight Goes to Decision, No” While we see Chidi winning the fight, Dusko could exploit some of Chidi’s weaknesses yet to be put on display for the UFC fans. Dusko has a quality ground game, and Chidi hadn’t developed one in his Bellator run, and it’s untested in the UFC. Fight Goes the Distance, No pays out $44 per $100 wager. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

UFC Fight Night 208 Odds: Polyana Viana vs Tabatha Ricci 

Viana is 3-3 in the UFC, racking up three submission wins. She upset Whitmire at +120, but was a strong favorite in her other wins. Then, Viana lost to Aldrich and Cifers as the favorite, -155 and -278 respectively. 
She faces Ricci, the 1-1 UFC newcomer. She lost to Fiorot as a +425 but came in the favorite in her win over Oliveira at -250. Ricci was undefeated outside of the UFC, but her bout with Oliviera was a narrow decision win. 

Tale of the Tape for Viana vs Ricci 

Fighter
Polyana ‘Dama de Ferro’ Viana 
Tabatha ‘Baby Shark’ Ricci 

Age
29
27

Height
5’5’’
5’1’’

Reach/Stance
67’’ Orthodox 
61’’ Orthodox 

Record
12-4
6-1

Submissions/TKO in UFC
3/0
0/0

Fighter Training Camp
TATA Fight Team
Paragon Brazilian Jiu Jitsu 

Viana is clearly the larger fighter. Ricci would benefit from a UFC atom weight division (105 pounds) and isn’t exactly stout. It looks as if she cuts no weight at all for 115. Viana has three losses inside the UFC. but the armbar loss to Macedo is the most notable for takedown artist Ricci. The fighters have comparable BJJ based fight teams, and neither has the MMA camp advantage. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Betting Odds for Ricci vs Viana

Bet
Odds 

Tabatha Ricci Money Line 
-130

Polyana Viana Money Line
+110

Fight Goes to Decision, No
+105

Over 1.5 Rounds
-310

Polyana by Submission 
+375

It’s no secret Polyana is hunting for the submission. She’s not the strongest grappler, and will look to box in order to bait Ricci into shooting. Ricci’s prefered fighting style is wrestling centered, landing on 46% of her strikes at distance in her only UFC win. 

Prop Betting Picks for Ricci vs Viana

All three of Polyana’s submission wins were in the first round, including her first round loss. While the Over is a strong favorite, I’m concerned with Polyana’s strategy being so submission focused. An over bet is practically a Ricci bet with a lower payout. Fight goes to decision, no discounts Ricci’s goal of decision wins based off the takedown. I see no pick that’s particularly interesting aside from Polyana via decision. As the underdog, you’re getting triple her money line banking on her doing what she always does, hunt the sub. 

MMA Breakdown for Ricci vs Viana

The only question on my mind is can Ricci be submitted? She’s smaller, and Viana is willing to overpower fighters where necessary, and wastes no time rushing into submission exchanges. The Mallory Martin fight makes me wonder if Ricci will look to engage in the takedown early, or do a better job of winning the trip straight to side mount. 

Key UFC Stats

Fighter
Tabatha Ricci
Polyana Viana

Submission Attempt Average
0.0
3.4

Strikes Absorbed per mInute
6.52
3.01

Ricci isn’t the strongest boxer. Given Viana’s history of knocking out Amanda Ribas (2015) and slugging it out with Hanna Cifers, I’d say Viana has a real chance of winning a stand up battle if Ricci is afraid to shoot. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Prediction for Ricci vs Viana

Polyana Viana’s money line at +110 is our underdog pick of the night. She has knockout power under the radar, a solid chin, and a constant threat of submissions that should keep Ricci at bay. Bet Viana for a $110 payout per $100 wager.
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

UFC Fight Night 208 Odds: Eryk Anders vs Junyong Park 

Eryk has struggled in his last four, going 1-2 with 1 No contest win after an illegal knee. Anders was the underdog in both losses to Jotko (+104) and Muniz (+175.) Other losses include Rountree, Theodorou and Thiago Santos, losing only once as the favorit, -180 to Roundtree in 2019. 

The Iron Turtle’s Takedown Based Wins

Park lost as the underdog to Hernandez and Rodrigues at +130 and +120. He defeated all three other UFC opponent’s, winning only once as the favorite at -265. If Jun Yong Park can’t establish the takedown, he has trouble doing much of anything else. 

Tale of the Tape for Anders vs Junyong

Fighter
Eryk ‘Ya Boi’ Anders 
Park ‘The Iron Turtle’ Junyong 

Age
35
31

Height
6’1’’
5’10’’

Reach/Stance
75’’ Southpaw
73’’ Orthodox 

Record
14-6, 1 NC
13-5

Submissions/TKO in UFC
0/3
0/0

Fighter Training Camp
Fight Ready MMA
Korean Top Team 

Anders is the larger man. Park is known for his stocky build, but truthfully he’s just small for the weight class and could make welterweight with the right coaches. One of Park’s only losses outside of the UFC is to now contender Shavkat Rakhmonov back in 2016. 

Fight Ready MMA vs KTT

Anders’ move to Fight Ready was the right one, especially for this bout. The Fight Ready MMA focus on grappling and defending takedowns should be central to Anders bout with Park. Park has an average 2.62 takedowns per fight, and in both of the fights he has lost in the UFC, he was unable to get the takedown. 
Korean Top Team produced several Bellator and ONE FC notables, but no other UFC fighters to date. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Betting Odds for Anders vs Junyong

Bet
Odds

Eryk Anders Money Line
+169

Junyong Park Money Line
-210

Fight to complete 1 Full Round
-650

Anders is the underdog after a rocky showing against Muniz, who quickly out grappled him and submitted him in just 3:13 of round 1. 
Park is yet to get a UFC submission, though his ground game is his bread and butter. Anders has three UFC submission wins, and nine of his 13 UFC fights have gone to the third round or greater, as in his five round bout with Machida in 2018. 

MMA Breakdown For Park vs Anders

Anders takedown defense will mean everything in this bout with Park. Junyong has a 57% takedown accuracy, and can’t seem to get the win in stand up exchanges, despite landing plenty of shots over Anthony Hernandez before losing by second round submission. 

Key UFC Stats

Fighter
Park Junyong
Eryk Anders

Takedown Defense
47%
74%

UFC Fights Ending in Round 1 
0
4

Anders will occasionally score first round wins or losses, but the pace of Park is dedicated to drawing out fights. Junyong has four fights ending in round 1 across his entire career ranging back to 2013. This focus on the long game gives us confidence in our prop pick. 

UFC Fight Night 206 Betting Pick for Park vs Anders

Our parlay pick of the evening is ‘fight to finish 1 Round’ at -650. This fight could go either way, so we’re playing it safe with a bet that pays out $15.38 per $100 wagered on its own and fits nicely into any parlay ticket. 
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Author: Tamara Kim