2022 AFC South Win Totals Odds and Predictions

2022 AFC South Win Totals Odds and Predictions

AFC South Background

In the 2021-22 NFL Regular Season in the AFC South Division, the Titans (9½ 2022-23 Regular Season Win Total) went an impressive 12-5 and outscored their opponents by 65 points over the 17 games as they ended with a 3-game Win Streak.

The Colts (10½ Regular Season Win Total) finished in 2nd place in the AFC South with a 9-8 mark, but outscore their opponent’s by more than Tennessee, finishing with a +84 (451 PF-365 PA), scoring the most Points in the division but ending with a 2-game slide. Considered the weakest division in the NFL, the AFC South’s 12/1 odds to win Super Bowl LVII are the longest of the eight teams in that Futures Props market at SportsBetting.ag. It may also have the same finishing order this year and we saw in 2021.

AFC South Division Betting Odds for this upcoming 2022-23 NFL Regular Season have the Jaguars (6½ Regular Season Win Total) expected to improve with the lowly Texans (4½ Regular Season Win Total) having the lowest expected Season Win Total in the AFC South.

It will likely be a matter of can Indianapolis overtake Tennessee, and I think this Titans (40/1 to win Super Bowl LVII) team is very good in many areas and a good team to look at as a longshot in the Super Bowl LVII Futures market at top NFL Betting Websites.

But can Tennessee really get to the AFC Championship Game, upset someone like the Bills in it and then beat the Rams or Buccaneers in Super Bowl LVII? (AFC -1½ SB LVII Early Line, SportsBetting.ag) Why not? And 40/1 is 40/1 and this team won 13 games in 2021.

Predict the records of the AFC South teams through 4 weeks pic.twitter.com/9LFIhIkmFa

— The Curious Colt (@Curious_Colt) August 16, 2022

AFC South Division Season Win Totals

Team
Last Season

Indianapolis Colts 9½
9 Wins

Tennessee Titans 9½
12 Wins

Jacksonville Jaguars 6½
3 Wins

Houston Texans 4½
4 Wins

Odds courtesy of SportsBetting.ag

Cumulatively in the 2021-22 NFL Regular Season, the AFC South went 28-40 (41.2%) and only had one team with a Winning Record at Home (Tennessee), so the AFC South Division Betting Odds seem fairly on, but there do look like two good betting approaches.

The Texans (4-13, 280 PF-452) scored the least Points in this Division and also had the worst Home Record (2-7) and was a dismal 2-6 on the Road, so with troubled QB Deshaun Watson (Browns) and WR DeAndre Hopkins (Cardinals) long gone, Houston rebuilds. Oddsmakers have the Texans as the longest shots to win Super Bowl LVII (300/1), and along with the Jets, Giants, and Falcons, may be in for a very long 2022 NFL Regular Season. Davis Miller (Stanford) may be the starting QB for the Texans this season.

Jacksonville (3-14, 253 PF-457 PA) allowed the most Points and was winless on the Road (0-8), so the maturation of Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) is going slower than Jacksonville (66/1 to win the AFC) would like, so Head Coach Urban Meyer is out this season.

Let’s look at the latest AFC South Division Betting Odds, and analyze these Futures numbers looking for some potential spots to either beat Over or Under their Regular Season Win Totals in the now 17-game schedules in the National Football League.

Here are the 2022 AFC South Division Season Win Totals from established online sportsbooks which show no teams anticipated to get to 10 Wins this year, including the only team to actually reach double-digits last year (Titans). Bon appétit.

Indianapolis Colts 9½ Wins

The Colts (22/1 to win Super Bowl LVII) won 9 games last season, and begin the Matt Ryan Era in Naptown with Nick Foles as a reliable backup and Indianapolis (12/1 to win AFC) was a team with an impressive +14 TO Margin last, tied for the best mark in the NFL.

So, there is reason for Hope in the Hoosier State with two teams in the AFC South Division downright bad and a solid Homefield Advantage (5-3 in 2021) at Lucas Oil Stadium (Shaw Sports Momentum Pro) and this team has some very productive players on Offense.

RB Jonathan Taylor (221/1,811/18, 5.5 ypc) may be the best Rusher in the NFL and a 2,000-yard season isn’t out of the question, and having him in the Colts backfield opens up the Indianapolis Passing game, something veteran Ryan was used to in Atlanta.

Besides Taylor (Wisconsin), the Colts ( -130 to win AFC South) also have TE Mo-Alie Cox and RB Nyheim Hines, so Ryan could use another weapon or two as Taylor can be a workhorse but Indy (10-7 ATS in 2021) will have to pass if it falls behind this season. The AFC South Division Season Win Total Betting Odds see the Colts and Titans both with 9½ Season Win Totals, and if there is a Division in the NFL where we could most expect a tie on top, it’s here in the AFC South and between these upstart Colts and the Titans.

The schedule sees Indianapolis (5-3 on Road in 2021) opening at the lowly Texans in Week 1 and then at the Jaguars in Jacksonville in Week 2, so a 2-0 start is likely as well as a 2-0 start in AFC South Division play thanks to the schedule and the weakness of these two.

In Week 3:

It’s the Home Opener and a test against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs followed by a huge Divisional game against the Titans in Indianapolis, so the early season schedule is favorable for Luck and you can see why the oddsmakers made the Total 9½.

But, betting this one seems like a toss-up with this team able to go anywhere from 8-9 to 13-4 depending on things like Luck—not Andrew anymore—the Defense, avoiding upsets and a disappointing finish like last season, and a stronger presence at Home.

Bring ’em out, bring ’em out ‼️ #DETvsIND pic.twitter.com/Z9vhwg0S7j

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) August 20, 2022

Tennessee Titans 9½ Wins

The Titans (40/1 to win Super Bowl LVII) won 12 games last season, and Tennessee (419-354 PA) may be better now with a healthy RB Derrick Henry anchoring the backfield and Rookie QB Malik Willis (Liberty) possibly being the surprise pick in the NFL Draft.

No one in the AFC South had a better Home Record than Tennessee (20/1 to win AFC) and QB Ryan Tannehill had a very impressive season, throwing for 3,734 yards and 21 TDs as the Titans (+175 to win AFC South) made the NFL Postseason (then lost to Cincinnati). The Titans schedule isn’t too bad with four games against the Texans and Jaguars, a Season against the Giants and Washington (Week 5) but the Bills (Week 2), Raiders (Week 3), Eagles (Week 13), and Cowboys (Week 17) will be challenging. Tennessee ended the 2021-22 Regular Season strong, winning 2 in a row and with the athletic Rookie Willis, can evolve a creative Rushing attack and have nice depth at the crucial QB spot (Tannehill-Woodside-Willis) and some good Receivers.

Robert Woods, Dez Fitzpatrick, Terry Godwin, Cody Hollister, and Rookie Treylon Burks (Arkansas) all give Tannehill some nice Targets but this tea could really use another quality WR with leading receiver AJ Brown (869 yards) now gone and playing for the Eagles.

The Titans were -3 in TO Margin last year, so improving in that area as well as in scoring some Points but when the Titans play at Home at Nissan Stadium (Tifsport Bermuda Sod) in Opryland. Tennessee went 10-8-0 Against The Spread (ATS ) all of last season.

For me, like the Colts, this Titans team could finish between 8-9 and 13-4 and despite the weakness of the AFC South, Indianapolis and Tennessee may both be in the NFL’s Top 12 Teams (LAR-BUF-GB-CIN-KC-TB-LAC-TEN-IND-LV-NO-PHIL) heading into the season.

“He’s special.”- Cowboys LB Micah Parsons on Malik Willis 👀 pic.twitter.com/IgUGFnUXNG

— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) August 12, 2022

Jacksonville Jaguars 6½ Wins

The Jaguars (125/1 to win Super Bowl LVII) won just 3 games last season—and lost 14—so if you are contemplating the Over 6½ Total Wins in this AFC South Division Betting Odds market, bettor beware, although 2 games against the Texans is nice.

Jacksonville (66/1 to win AFC) has the 2nd-weakest schedule in the NFL this season and a new Head Coach, with Doug Pederson with the Urban Meyer experiment over with and QB Trevor Lawrence needing guidance as he struggles early on in his NFL career.

RB Travis Etienne Jr. (Clemson) was a running mate with Lawrence at Death Valley and this team has the potential as oddsmakers are showing with these AFC South Division Betting Odds. But this seems too close of a call to me and I’d lean Under instead the Over.

Why?

Because this team won 0 games on the Road last season (just 3-6 at Home) and was outscored by a whopping 204 points and the Jaguars had a -20 TO Margin (9 takeaways, 20 Giveaways), worst in the NFL and went 5-12 ATS, tied for the worst mark in the NFL.

The Jaguars also only scored 176 points in 17 games, so hold your nose if betting the Jacksonville Season Win Total Over as you are asking for a 4-game improvement this season from a sad team that only won 3 games all of last season. Good luck.

Teal on black at the crib!@PPG | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/KthIsIBURB

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) August 17, 2022

Houston Texans 4½ Wins

The Texans (33/1 to win AFC South) finished with 4 wins last season and trying to see where they will get to 5 this season seems like scanning a Beach for lost Coins from a century ago…an exercise in futility. Like the Jets, Giants, and Falcons, the Texas stink.

Houston (155/1 to win AFC) is lucky it plays in the same Division as the Jaguars and the two went a combined 2-14 on the Road last season and are expected Wins for whoever hosts these two AFC dogs this upcoming 2022-23 NFL Regular Season. Week 1 sees the Texans (33/1 to win AFC South) facing the Colts in Indianapolis followed by challenging contests against the Broncos (Week 2), Bears (Week 3), Chargers (Week 4), and Raiders (Week 6) with a shot at a Win at Lawrence and Jacksonville in Week 5.

With Deshaun Watson gone and QB David Mills suddenly the signal caller for the Texans, it seems like another long season for this franchise who could end anywhere from 1-16 to 5-12 if all went right, so the lean here is to the Under and worth a wager.

TIME TO GRIND pic.twitter.com/gyJQKZiAYw

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) August 20, 2022

AFC South Division Prediction

The AFC South Division Prediction in the standings is for a tie with both the Colts and Titans finishing at 10-7 with one making the Playoffs as a Wild Card and both hard to beat because of their star RBs, Taylor and Henry, easily two of the best Rushers in the NFL now.

But the AFC South Season Win Totals pick is for the Titans to go Over, as the 13 Wins last season was 3½ games higher than the oddsmakers are offering now, 3 weeks before the season starts Thursday, September 8 with the Bills at the Rams (NBC, 8:30 ET/5:20 PT). And because the Jaguars are too unpredictable with a new and promising Head Coach in Doug Pederson and the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL, the Jaguars Under 6½ is a pass as a 7-10 season is possible in Tom Petty’s hometown. Don’t come around here no more.

There are other Futures bets to contemplate besides the AFC South Division Win Totals of Tennessee Over 9½, Jacksonville Under 6½, and Houston Under 4½ here with the Titans priced at +140 to win the AFC South is worth a shot with strength at Home.

A decent betting approach ATS may be to fade Jacksonville, a team that went 5-12 ATS last season (29.4%) and which has gone a mind-bending 12-21 ATS since 2020, tied for the worst Point Spread Record in the NFL over that span with the Jets (12-21-0, 36.4%).

The AFC South Division Season Win Totals may seem off a bit, but most bettors look to the positive and for Overs and with sportsbooks employing ½ game in its 2022 Season Team Win Totals odds, asking that team to get over the hump is often harder than it seems.

Best NFL Bet:

Titans Reg Season Team Win Total

Author: Tamara Kim