We’ve gathered the top UFC on ESPN 38 odds and looked closely at all twelve fights. We have our best predictions ready alongside a few long shot prop bets on some of the UFC’s top athletes. Our UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Gamrot predictions are looking for the most likely outcome, but you’ll see several overlooked underdogs and upsets.
How to Watch and Bet on UFC on ESPN 38
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Gamrot takes place at UFC APEX June 25th, 2022. The fight prelims start at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN 2 and the main card will air on ESPN and ESPN+. Bet on any fight by clicking the place bet button below each suggested wager. You’ll be taken to Bovada, one of the top sites for UFC betting online.
UFC on ESPN 38 Predictions
Here is a full list of the fights, with our top betting pick. We go into detail on lucrative prop bets and alternative betting strategies under each bout.
Arman Tsarukyan vs Mateusz Gamrot: Over 1.5 Rounds at -350
Neil Magny vs Shavkat Rakhmonov: Rakhmonov Money Line at -425
Josh Parisian vs Alan Baudot: Fight Completes Round 1 at -300
Thiago Moises vs Christos Giagos: Giagos Money Line at +200
Nate Maness vs Umar Nurmagomedov: Over 1.5 at -170
Chris Curtis vs Rodolfo Vieira: Chris Curtis Money Line at -128
Carlos Ulberg vs Tafon Nchukwi: Carlos Ulberg Money Line at +100
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs TJ Brown: TJ Brown Money Line at -210
Raulian Paiva vs Sergey Morozov: Raulian Paiva Money Line +125
JP Buys vs Cody Durden: ‘Fight Goes to Decision, No’ prop bet at -114
Brian Kelleher vs Mario Bautista: Over 1.5 Rounds at -240
Vanessa Demopoulos vs Jinh Yu Frey: Jinh Yu Frey Money Line at -250
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Arman Tsarukyan -290 vs Mateusz Gamrot +230
Tsarukyan comes in the favorite, having only lost to Isam Makhachev in the UFC. He’s on a five fight winning streak with two recent TKOs totalling only 58 strikes. Arman Tsarukyan has been the favorite in all recorded bouts except his loss to Islam.
Gamrot’s Betting History
Mateusz is the underdog for the first time in recorded MMA, including his time at Cage Warriors and KSW. He lost once in the UFC to Guram Kutateladze back in 2020 in a very narrow split decision. This is his only career loss.
UFC Betting Odds for Tsarukyan vs Gamrot
Fighter
Arman Tsarukyan
Mateusz Gamrot
Money Line
-290
+230
Points or Decision
+170
+450
TKO
+250
+650
Submission
+500
+900
Inside the Distance
+135
+375
In Round 1
+450
+800
In Round 2
+700
+1200
In Round 3
+1000
+1600
In Round 4
+1400
+2200
In Round 5
+2200
+2800
Gamrot is the underdog in all categories, most pronounced in the 280 point difference in the by decision win prop bets. This fight is expected to go the distance, with both fighters showing recent early finishes. Together, they have five finishes over the last three fights, never beyond round 2.
Tsarukyan’s KO Ratio
In his UFC run, Armen is two for six on TKOs. In his career as a whole, he only has another four TKO wins, keeping in line with his 33% ratio. His striking and ground work has improved dramatically since early fights, moving away from the submission work he used in his local fight scene.
Gamrot’s Submission Work
Gamrot has scored one UFC submission as well as a submission due to strikes. In his career, he’s landed several heel hooks and other less common submissions. I see his leg lock work as a factor in deterring the 3.47 average takedowns of Arman Tsarukyan.
Over Under Bets for Tsarukyan vs Gamrot
Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds
1.5 Rounds
-350
+250
2.5 Rounds
-210
+160
3.5 Rounds
-155
+120
4.5 Rounds
-120
-110
Fight Goes the Distance
-105
-125
Fight Completes Round 1
-650
-450
Fight Completes Round 2
-300
+220
Fight Completes Round 3
-175
+135
Fight Completes Round 4
-130
EVEN
Gamrot’s only loss was a split decision. I don’t see Armen putting him away so easily, and the odds are shifted in Armen’s favor to the point that an over prop pays more than him by Over 2.5 rounds. Armen has been finished before, a round one TKO early in his pro career. The UFC on ESPN 38 odds are favoring a finish because of momentum, but this is only proof that they’ve faced opponent’s not on their competitive level.
UFC Round Stats for Tsarukyan vs Gamrot
In decisions, both fighters have focused on takedowns. Gamrot has scored eleven in four fights and Armen has scored thirteen in that same time frame. Armen’s bout with Islam was the only fight where he fought a competitive wrestler, and that fight went the distance with only moderate action.
Key UFC Betting Stats for Tsarukyan vs Gamrot
Fighter
Armen Tsarukyan
Matheusz Gamrot
Height
5’7’’
5’10’’
Average Takedowns
3.47
5.84
Takedown Defensive %
78%
100%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute
1.36
2.69
Armen has an advantage in striking, but Gamrot has the better defensive wrestling. He’s the larger framed man at featherweight, and I see Arman struggling to find his range if Gamrot can repeatedly force the grapple.
UFC on ESPN 38 Main Event Predictions
Our top betting pick is the Over 1.5 rounds at -350. Neither fighter gets put away with ease, and their only UFC level losses have been decisions. Gamrot isn’t a stronger finisher than Islam, who couldn’t finsih Tsarukyan. Our top long shot pick is Gamrot by Points at +450. If your’re looking for a higher payout, we see Gamrot following Islam’s gameplan, grounding Tsarukyan againa and again for the 4.5 times your money prop bet.
Our top pick offers winnings of $28.57 per $100 wager.
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Neil Magny +305 vs Shavkat Rakhmonov -425
Magny is the underdog for the first time since his fight with Ponzinibbio, a fight he lost by fourth round TKO as a +187. He also lost to Chiesa as a -145. Neil’s last upset win was a +110 win over Carlos Condit in 2017.
Shavkat Rakhmonov Betting History
Rakhmonov has been the favorite in all UFC showings, with no other bouts on record that have recorded betting odds. He was a -139 in his debut and has hovered between -140 and -360 in other UFC wins.
UFC Betting Odds for Magny vs Rakhmonov
Fighter
Neil Magny #10
Shavkat Rakhmonov #15
Money Line
+305
-425
Points or Decision
+500
+275
TKO
+1000
+150
Submission
+1800
+275
Inside the Distance
+800
-140
In Round 1 or 2
+1200
-105
In Round 3 or Submission
+400
+150
The UFC on ESPN 38 betting lines are heavily in Shavkat’s favor. A -140 inside the distance win prop against a UFC top five? Shavkat is the silent hype train riding alongside Khamzat Chimaev, and there’s reason to believe he’s even more dangerous.
Magny’s Long UFC History
Active since 2013, Magny has seen a seven fight winning streak outside of the top ten, and has hovered around the belt ever since then. He’s defeated contenders Johnny Hendricks, Condit, Lawler and Gastelum. Magny has lost twice by submission to RDA and Damien Maia, two of the most consistent submission artists at Welterweight.
Shavkat’s Style and Fight Game
Shavkat’s wins have been two submissions and one knockout for the UFC. He’s finished his career fifteen wins seven times by submission and eight via TKO. His 100% finishing rate has only one fight in the third round, including multiple body shot finishes.
Over Under Bets for Magny vs Rakhmonov
Bet
Over, Yes odds
Under, No Odds
1.5 Rounds
-155
+120
2.5 Rounds
+115
-150
Fight Goes the Distance
+146
-200
Fight Completes Round 1
-280
+200
Fight Completes Round 2
-120
-110
Win or lose, Magny has seen six fights in a row go to decision. Rakhmonov is the fighter that is making the under a favorite in the UFC on ESPN 38 odds.
UFC Round Stats for Magny vs Rakhmonov
Magny has three UFC finishes in the third round or later. He’s gone the distance in five round fights only once, losing in round four to Ponzinibbio but losing a decision to Chiesa. Shavkat has a total UFC fight time of 16 minutes for three fights.
3 UFC fights, 3 finishes, Neil Magny is up next for Shavkat Rakhmonov. #UFCVegas57 pic.twitter.com/fOtyUn6esN
— Just Another UFC Fan. (@thingsufc1) June 22, 2022
Key UFC Betting Stats for Magny vs Rakhmonov
Fighter
Neil Magny ‘The Haitian Sensation’
Shavkat ‘Nomad’ Rakhmonov
Reach
80’’
77’’
Average Takedowns
2.37
1.88
Takedown Defensive %
58%
100%
Control Time over the last Three
8:31
5:01
Shavkat controlled five of his sixteen minutes in the ring. Neil should work to put Shavkat on the fence, something Alex Oliveira was able to do for two minutes, despite scoring no takedowns. This could drag the fight out. I see Rakhmonov looking to outstrike Niel despite the reach disadvantage, meaning that he’ll prioritize kicking early on.
UFC on ESPN 38 Magny vs Rakhmonov Predictions
Our betting pick is the Rakhmonov money line at -425. He’s the more dangerous fighter, and Magny seems to have lost some of his snap as he moves into his mid thirties. Max Griffon landed more significant strikes and even scored a knockdown but somehow lost the fight. I see Rakmonov finishing the bout, and his inside the distance prop offers a significant boost in return at -140. I’m reminded of the Chimaev hype train, and how Burns put on the performance of his career to derail it with a decision.
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Josh Parisian -105 vs Alan Baudot -115
Parisian is coming off an underdog loss at +170 via TKO. He lost to Porter as a -235 favorite, but upset Grg Rebello in DWCS as a +475. This guy is all over the place.
Baudot Betting History
The Black Samourai is 0-3 in the UFC, ranging from +242 to +500. He had the misfortune of debuting versus Tom Aspinall, and has been knocked out twice in under eight minutes total octagon time.
UFC Betting Odds for Parisian vs Baudot
Fighter
Josh Parisian
Alan Baudot
Money Line
-105
-115
Points or Decision
+300
+450
Inside the Distance
+350
+165
Split or Majority Decision
+1100
+1400
In Round 1
+550
+330
In Round 2
+850
+550
In Round 3
+1400
+1000
Baudot has a better chance of finishing, and the odds reflect his KO win. Parisian has two TKOs in DWCS bouts, and has a fantastic significant strike rate at 4.93 per minute.
Baudot’s TKO Rate
Outside of the UFC, Anal had scored all eight wins in an 8-1 record by TKO. He also lost by TKO, meaning that Alan has only seen one fight in his career go to decision.
Throwing biiiiiiiiiig shots 👊
🇫🇷 @Alan_Baudot with a fast start in this bout. #UFCVegas31 pic.twitter.com/bUaIONeJU9
— UFC (@ufc) July 17, 2021
Parisian’s Style
In fights that didn’t end immediately, Parisian landed a total of 193 shots across two decisions. He’ll either put Baudot down or win the decision.
Over Under Bets for Parisian vs Baudot
Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds
1.5 Rounds
-190
+145
2.5 Rounds
+115
-150
Fight Goes the Distance
+140
-179
Fight Completes Round 1
-300
+220
Fight Completes Round 2
-125
-105
I don’t think Baudot has the chin to manage Josh, but it doesn’t mean he can’t swing for the fences early on.
UFC Round Stats for Parisian vs Baudot
Baudot took only 43 significant strikes in his decision loss to Porter, whom he outstruck. He was outboxing Rodrigo before getting knocked out in the second round. Parisian’s last loss was in the third round, but it was also initiated by ground strikes.
Key UFC Betting Stats for Parisian vs Baudot
Fighter
Josh Parisian
Alan Baudot
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute
4.93
5.12
Last Weigh in
265
243
Takedown Offensive, Defensive Percentage
11%, 42%
0, 75%
Parisian is larger and cuts to make the heavyweight limit. Baudot will be the smaller man in the clench. Expect these two to have similar rates of fire, and both fighters will look to finish, but neither man could finish Parker Porter, indicating that their knockout power might be survivable for both men.
UFC on ESPN 38 Parisian vs Baudot Predictions
Our betting pick is ‘Fight Completes Round 1, Yes’ at -300. Either man could take the fight, but I think they will get into the later rounds despite a high rate of TKOs at lower levels. If you’re looking for an odds boost, consider the Josh Parisian money line. He was close to beating Porter, who rag dolled Baudot.
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Thiago Moises -265 vs Christos Giagos +200
Giagos lost his last bout to Tsarukyan as a +610 at closing. He lost to Drakkar Klose as the underdog at +165, but upset Dadzovic at +145. That was his only UFC upset in five times as the underdog.
Moises Betting History
Struggling in his last two, Moises moved to 5-4 in the UFC and DWCS. He lost ast the favorite to Alvarez at -240, but upset both Bobby Green and Alexander Hernandez.
UFC Betting Odds for Moises vs Giagos
Fighter
Thiago Moises
Christos Giagos
Money Line
-265
+200
Points or Decision
+190
+375
TKO
+500
+650
Submission
+215
+1400
Inside the Distance
+140
+550
In Round 1
+300
+1200
In Round 2
+500
+1600
In Round 3
+1000
+2200
Moises is the more proven fighter across all categories, though both men only have two UFC finishes a piece.
Thiago Moises Close Calls
Bobby Green is a tough fight to call. We’ve said that Green won that fight before. The Hernandez fight was razor close, and the win over Michael Johnson was a one way beating until Moises landed a quick ankle lock.
Christos Giagos Grappling
Giagos likes to prioritize the takedown, scoring nineteen in his last four wins. If Giagos can win the takedown, he can win the fight.
Over Under Bets for Moises vs Giagos
Bet
Over, yes Odds
Under, No Odds
1.5 Rounds
-230
+175
2.5 Rounds
-125
-105
Fight Goes the Distance
-105
-122
Fight Completes Round 1
-400
+275
Fight Completes Round 2
-165
+125
Both men have seen two short fights in a row, stepping away from their UFC averages.
UFC Round Stats for Moises vs Giagos
Moises has seen four UFC finishes and four decisions. Giagos has seen five and five. Both fighters are evenly split, though if you look at wins against quality fighters, they go to decisions around 66% of the time.
Key UFC Betting Stats for Moises vs Giagos
Fighter
Thiago Moises
Christos Giagos
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute
4.12
2.93
Takedown Defense
60%
52%
Average Takedowns per Fifteen Minutes
1
3.31
We see Giagos landing more often and controlling more of the fight. Moises should struggle to submit this wrestling centered fighter.
UFC on ESPN 38 Moises vs Giagos Predictions
Our betting pick is the Gigao money line at +200. Aside from the upset, a Giagos decision prop bet at +375 is a nice odds boost, though we can see a submission as a possibility.
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Nate Maness +625 vs Umar Nurmagomedov -1000
Maness is undefeated in the UFC, winning three straight via finish. He upset all three opponents, +180 over Graely and +137 over Sanders.
Nurmagomedov Betting History
Umar is 2-0 in the UFC, showing up as a massive -500 and -900 favorite.
UFC Betting Odds for Maness vs Nurmagomedov
Fighter
Nathan Maness
Umar Nurmagomedov
Money Line
+625
-1000
Points or Decision
+1100
+175
TKO
+1000
+500
Submission
+2500
EVEN
Inside the Distance
+1100
-175
In Round 1
+2200
+200
In Round 2
+4000
+350
In Round 3
+1100
+800
Betting lines don’t have much faith in Nathan Maness, though he’s scored more career knockouts than Umar and arguably fought better UFC competition. Umar is nearing the best closing position of his UFC career.
Over Under Bets for Maness vs Nurmagomedov
Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds
1.5 Rounds
-170
+130
2.5 Rounds
-110
-120
Fight Goes the Distance
+145
-190
Fight Completes Round 1
-250
+185
Fight Completes Round 2
-110
-120
Both Fighters have finished in the second round over their last two fights. Maness scored knockdowns in both. Against Munoz in 2020, Maness landed 158 strikes in three rounds, including 1:29 of control.
Nate Maness (+168) said goodnight! 😴 #UFCVegas37
(via @ufc)pic.twitter.com/roGh2Wsa1l
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) September 19, 2021
UFC Round Stats for Maness vs Nurmagomedov
Umar has seen six career decisions in fourteen fights, while Maness has seen six. Both men keep a rapid pace of grappling, but Maness keeps the higher striking volume.
Key UFC Betting Stats for Maness vs Nurmagomedov
Fighter
Nathan Maness
Umar Nurmagomedov
Height
5’10’’
5’7’’
Average Takedowns
1.52
7.56
Takedown Defensive %
86%
NA
Strikes Defensive Percentage
45%
83%
Maness will accept damage to land work in the clinch. That doesn’t bode well against Umar. No one has shot a takedown against him in the UFC, and we could have a Tim Elliot situation on our hands, where Umar isn’t as versed in defensive grappling as he appears.
UFC on ESPN 38 Maness vs Nurmagomedov Predictions
Our top betting pick is the Over 1.5 Rounds at -170. Both men see decisions against high quality grapplers, and both fighters have great submission defense. Our long shot pick is the Nathan Maness money line at +625. He has all the tools to offer Umar his first loss, though we doubt many of you will take the position.
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Chris Curtis -128 vs Rodolfo Vieira +103
Curtis is undefeated in the UFC with three finishes. He upset his last two opponent’s at +290 each.
Vieira Betting History
At 3-1 in the UFC, Vieira has shown himself to be a submission machine, losing to Anthony Hernandez at -470 via guillotine.
UFC Betting Odds for Curtis vs Vieira
Fighter
Chris Curtis
Rodolfo Vieira
Money Line
-128
+103
Points or Decision
+900
+700
TKO
-121
+1200
Submission
+2000
+170
Inside the Distance
-110
+150
In Round 1
+180
+300
In Round 2
+400
+550
In Round 3
+1000
+1000
Curtis has the money line and TKO props while Vieira wins the sub and decision categories. Curtis has never lost by submission.
Over Under Bets for Curtis vs Vieira
Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds
1.5 Rounds
+130
-170
2.5 Rounds
+275
-400
Fight Goes the Distance
+460
-750
Fight Completes Round 1
-150
+115
Fight Completes Round 2
+220
-300
In UFC bouts, neither man has seen a decision, though both fighters have one UFC Round 3 finish.
UFC Round Stats for Curtis vs Vieira
The UFC on ESPN 38 betting odds see a mid fight finish. The stats show three second round finishes and two third round finishes across their combined seven UFC showings.
Key UFC Betting Stats for Curtis vs Vieira
Fighter
Chris ‘Action Man’ Curtis
Rodolfo Vieira
Average Significant Strikes
7.21
2.6
Takedown Defensive %
100%
100%
Curtis has never been taken down in the UFC. This is bad news for Rodolfo, who lost to Hernandez, a fighter with a lower punching ratio and defensive percentage.
UFC on ESPN 38 Curtis vs Vieira Predictions
Our betting pick is Chris Curtis at -128. He’s a slight favorite, but the stats say he’ll win over Vieira handly. This is our parlay pick of the evening.
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Carlos Ulberg EVEN vs Tafon Nchukwi -120
Ulberg is 2-1 in the UFC, losing once at -215 but showing up as the favorite in three bouts in a row.
Nchukwi Betting History
Tafon has been the favorite in all bouts except his last, losing to Azamat Murzakanov by knockout in March. He’s been the favorite from -120 to -318 in the UFC.
UFC Betting Odds for Nchukwi vs Ulberg
Fighter
Tafon Nchukwi
Carlos Ulberg
Money Line
-120
EVEN
Inside the Distance
+180
+180
Draw
+6600
+6600
3 Round Decision
+350
+350
In Round 1
+400
+400
In Round 2
+650
+650
In Round 3
+1100
+1100
This fight is easily the closest match up of the night, and the UFC on ESPN 38 odds reflect that. Both fighters have one UFC knockout win and loss, both show high quality grappling.
GOOD NIGHT 🇳🇿 Carlos Ulberg finds the chin and ends the night!
[ Contracts up next on #ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/JB1vYDZXi5
— UFC (@ufc) November 5, 2020
Over Under Bets for Nchukwi vs Ulberg
Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds
1.5 Rounds
-170
+130
2.5 Rounds
+115
-150
Fight Goes the Distance
+148
-190
Fight Completes Round 1
-300
+220
Fight Completes Round 2
-120
-110
Against UFC opponent’s, both men tend to land high punch volumes among wins.
UFC Round Stats for Nchukwi vs Ulberg
Ulberg was a high level professional kickboxer, and has only five fights in total. His lack of MMA experience may haunt him. Nchukwi has all knockouts in the first and second round outside the UFC, including in a three fight amatuer career.
Key UFC Betting Stats for Nchukwi vs Ulberg
Fighter
Tafon Nchukwi
Carlos ‘Black Jag’ Ulberg
Significant Strikes per Minute
6.12
8.76
Takedown Defensive %
71%
100%
Submission Attempts
0.0
0.0
Nchukwi is only a Lloyd Irving blue belt, but I know his BJJ game is better than he’s letting on. Carlos hasn’t allowed any takedowns in three fights, and if this is just a kickboxing match, we should see a Ulberg win.
UFC on ESPN 38 Nchukwi vs Ulberg Predictions
Our betting pick is the underdog, Carlos Ulberg. He offers a one for one return on your money. Ulberg struggled with the 84’’ reach of Nzechukwu, but Tafon has the same reach and an underwhelming takedown game.
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke +170 vs TJ Brown -210
Nuerdanbieke is facing his third fight as the underdog in the UFC, going 1-1 with a recent win over Sean Soriano at +285.
Brown Betting History
At 3-2 in the UFC, Brown has defeated Rosa and Kamaka as the favorite, but lost to Griffin at +115. He was upset by Danny Chavez at -135.
UFC Betting Odds for Brown vs Nuerdanbieke
Fighter
Tj Brown
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Money Line
-210
+170
Points or Decision
+125
+325
TKO
+650
+800
Submission
+325
+1200
Inside the Distance
+250
+500
In Round 1
+450
+900
In Round 2
+800
+1600
In Round 3
+1500
+2500
Brown won his DWCS showing by submission but has only lost via finish in the UFC. Shayilan’s win over Soriano was via hard fought decision. His striking is not UFC level, and Brown will look to exploit his lack of technical striking.
Over Under Bets for Brown vs Nuerdanbieke
Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds
1.5 Rounds
-375
+260
2.5 Rounds
-225
+170
Fight Goes the Distance
-179
+138
Fight Completes Round 1
-550
+350
Fight Completes Round 2
-250
+185
Both fighters have seen decisions in their last two fights. Neither fighter is a finisher even at lower level MMA, with Brown focused on the submission the majority of his career.
What a comeback!
TJ Brown gets the late 3rd-round submission win at #DWCS! Wow! pic.twitter.com/0N5g0V4r3B
— UFC (@ufc) August 28, 2019
Key UFC Betting Stats for Brown vs Nuerdanbieke
Fighter
TJ Brown
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Reach
72’’
69’’
Average Takedowns
4.5
3
Submission Ratio
1.1
0.0
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute
3.87
1.13
Brown has the reach advantage, and the advantage in all offensive categories.
UFC on ESPN 38 Brown vs Nuerdanbieke Predictions
We see an easy win for TJ Brown at -210. He’s struggled to show his best skills against most of the fighters he’s faced, but Nuerdanbieke is at the UFC level a little too soon. Our top prop is the Brown via Decision prop at +125, but we think his possibility of a submission win is about 30%.
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Raulian Paiva +125 vs Sergey Morozov -150
Paiva lost his last fight to O’Malley as a +280 underdog. He also lost to Bontorin at -111 and Kara-France at +225. He has one UFC upset over Kyler Phillips.
Morozov Betting History
At 1-2 in the UFC, Morozov was upset by Andrade, but upset Taha at +125. He lost to Umar as a +450 underdog.
UFC Betting Odds for Paiva vs Morozov
Fighter
Raulian Paiva
Sergey Morozov
Money Line
+125
-150
Points or Decision
+265
+135
TKO
+475
+550
Submission
+800
+900
Inside the Distance
+300
+275
In Round 1
+700
+650
In Round 2
+900
+850
In Round 3
+1200
+1100
Morozov is given the favorite status in all categories except submission, despite Paiva having a UFC knockout and Morozov having only decision wins.
Over Under Bets for Paiva vs Morozov
Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds
1.5 Rounds
-285
+210
2.5 Rounds
-155
+120
Fight Goes the Distance
-139
+102
Fight Completes Round 1
-650
+400
Fight Completes Round 2
-225
+170
Morozov was finished twice in the second round. Paiva Has lost by decision once and first round TKO twice. These losses point to a finish.
UFC Round Stats for Paiva vs Morozov
In Paiva’s decision wins, he was out struck in both fights, landing about 20% less significant shots. In Morozov’s decision over Taha, he focused on the takedown to drag out the bout.
One of the most underrated flyweights returns for #UFC251 Raulian Paiva. 🔥🔥🔥
pic.twitter.com/HWorqcVAPt
— WhatsUpMMA (@WhatsUp_MMA) June 9, 2020
Key UFC Betting Stats for Paiva vs Morozov
These fighters have similar stats, and Paiva’s are worse off from the three top tier fighters he’s faced. They’ve faced such different levels of competition, it’s unhelpful to compare them.
UFC on ESPN 38 Paiva vs Morozov Predictions
Our top betting pick is Paiva at +125. His losses to ranked opponent’s shouldn’t count against him winning against this 1-2 fighter. Morozov has three losses outside of the UFC and at 33, is nearing the age where getting better significantly isn’t an option.
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JP Buys -120 vs Cody Durden EVEN
Buys is 1-3 in the UFC and DWCS, winning only over Jacob Silva as a +385 upset. He was the favorite in all three losses.
Durden Betting History
Durden is also 1-3, and was a -155 favorite in his win over Qileng Aori. He’s been the underdog in two losses.
UFC Betting Odds for Durden vs Buys
Fighter
Cody Durden
JP Buys
Money Line
EVEN
-120
Points or Decision
+240
+240
TKO
+400
+550
Submission
+900
+400
Inside the Distance
+325
+230
In Round 1
+650
+550
In Round 2
+900
+800
In Round 3
+1600
+1200
Durden has the better striking power, and Buys has been knocked out twice at the UFC level with a total 62 strikes. Durden has been submitted twice. It’s as if both fighters holds the other’s weakness, though they both attempt to strike and grapple equally.
Over Under Bets for Durden vs Buys
Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds
1.5 Rounds
-240
+180
2.5 Rounds
-135
+105
Fight Goes the Distance
-115
-114
Fight Completes Round 1
-500
+325
Fight Completes Round 2
-225
+170
We’re predicting a finish, given the weaknesses both fighters have regarding chin and submission defense.
UFC Round Stats for Durden vs Buys
In UFC bouts, Durden is 2-2 for decisions and submission losses. Buys has seen one decision, and three fights ending before 3:00 of round 2.
Key UFC Betting Stats for Durden vs Buys
Fighter
Cody Durden
JP Buys
Height
5’7’’
5’5’’
Average Takedowns
4.38
1.7
Sig. Strikes Landed Per Minute
3.44
1.76
If Durden can stop shooting the takedown, he won’t offer Buys the chance of submission. Buys can’t stand with him, and absorbs too many shots to survive a kickboxing match. Durden gets hit often but seems to brush it off.
UFC on ESPN 38 Durden vs Buys Predictions
We see an early night for someone, and the UFC on ESPN 38 odds are pointed toward the Fight Goes to Decision, No prop bet at -114. This pick pays winnings of $87.82 per $100 wager.
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Brian Kelleher +140 vs Mario Bautista -175
Kelleher is 8-6 in the UFC.He’s been the underdog in losses to Umar Nurmagomedov at +750 and Ricky Simon at +210. He’s won his last three wins as the favorite.
Bautista Betting History
Now 3-2 in the UFC, Bautista lost as the underdog to Cory Sandhagen and as a -225 favorite to Trevin Jones. He upset Miles Johns and Jin Soo Son as a +122 and +150.
UFC Betting Odds for Bautista vs Kelleher
Fighter
Mario Bautista
Brian Kelleher
Money Line
-175
+140
Points or Decision
+175
+400
TKO
+375
+600
Submission
+525
+500
Inside the Distance
+220
+275
In Round 1
+450
+550
In Round 2
+700
+800
In Round 3
+1100
+1400
Over Under Bets for Bautista vs Kelleher
Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds
1.5 Rounds
-240
+180
2.5 Rounds
-135
+105
Fight Goes the Distance
-113
-121
Fight Completes Round 1
-400
+275
Fight Completes Round 2
-165
+125
Both Fighters have lost by submission and knockout in the very first round. Kelleher’s last finish was five fights ago over Ray Rodriguez.
UFC Round Stats for Bautista vs Kelleher
Bautista has seen two UFC decisions over five fights, winning both with superior striking and grappling. Kellher has gone 2-2 in his last four decisions, seeing them in about half of his UFC appearances.
Key UFC Betting Stats for Bautista vs Kelleher
Fighter
Mario Bautista
Brian Kelleher
Height
5’9’’
5’6’’
Average Takedowns
1.6
1.8
Takedown Defensive %
66%
63%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute
4.3
4.66
Both fighters are evenly matched, with similar strengths and weaknesses.
UFC on ESPN 38 Bautista vs Kelleher Predictions
Our top pick is the Over 1.5 Rounds prop bet at -240. These fighters show similar styles and striking strategies. They’ll stimei eachother with low takedown rates, and punching that’s slow to find its range.
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Vanessa Demopoulos +200 vs Jinh Yu Frey -250
Demopoulos is now 1-2 in the UFC after her upset of Juarez in January. She’s been the underdog in all three bouts.
Frey Betting History
At 2-2 in the UFC, Frey upset Ashely Yoder as a +145 but has lost twice as the underdog.
UFC Betting Odds for Frey vs Demopoulos
Fighter
Jinh Yu Frey
Vanessa Demopoulos
Money Line
-250
+200
Points or Decision
-125
+425
TKO
+550
+1600
Submission
+600
+600
Inside the Distance
+250
+600
In Round 1
+550
+1200
In Round 2
+800
+1600
In Round 3
+1100
+2200
Over Under Bets for Frey vs Demopoulos
Bet
Over, Yes Odds
Under, No Odds
1.5 Rounds
-375
+260
2.5 Rounds
-240
+180
Fight Goes the Distance
-200
+150
Fight Completes Round 1
-750
+450
Fight Completes Round 2
-325
+230
Frey has been submitted once, but has seen three decisions in a row. Demopoulos lost two fights via decision for UFC and DWCS since 2020.
Key UFC Betting Stats for Frey vs Demopoulos
Fighter
Vanessa Demopoulos
Jinh Yu Frey
Reach
59’’
65’’
Age
33
37
Takedown Defensive %
33%
90%
Vanessa will drop to her back to look for submissions, offering submissions and control in both her losses. Frey also enjoys a six inch reach advantage.
UFC on ESPN 38 Frey vs Demopoulos Predictions
Our betting pick is the favorite, Jinh Yu Frey at -250. She’s the better striker, with a longer reach, and a better overall strategy for consistent wins.
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